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Interest Rate Hike Bouys Dollar, Euro Falls
Financial Spread Trading By Freddie Mooche
The impact of the Value Added Tax on Germany and the Euro zone as a whole continues to be limited. This keeps a rate hike by the European Central Bank in play as overall estimates remain hawkish. Tomorrow the BoE will finish its two day meeting with an interest rate announcement expected later today, with a 40% chance priced in for a rate hike by the BoE plenty of market interest will surround the announcement.
Nfl Betting Spread (AXcess News) New York - The dollar rose against the euro Tuesday as currency traders anticipated another rate hike by the Fed which caused the euro to fall in trading.
Today, there are no data expected for release in the US as most attention will be given to the G7 meeting in Germany this weekend. EUR Yesterday, the ECB decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.5% was anticipated and expected by the markets, yet the following statement made by Trichet mentioning a %trong vigilance% zone caused a EUR buying effect and raised concerns for a rate hike next month. However, the GBP fell significantly when the BOE left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% after some expectation for another interest hike that didn't occur at the end.
Commodity Spread Trading The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to release the minutes of its last meeting when the central bank raised short-term interest rates to 3.75 percent. Currency traders were expecting that market information to reflect further interest rate hikes.
Another worry these investors have comes in the form of interest rate bets. Some funds operate without regard to the recent interest rate hikes; other change their cash positions to reflect changes in the interest rate environment.
Betting Exchange Spread The euro fell 0.5 percent in New York by mid-day, at $1.2002. The British pound hit a new 10-week low of $1.7444 in anticipation of interest rate cuts in the UK. The dollar was 0.5 percent stronger against the Swiss franc as well with the franc quoted at 1.2890.
Having been pessimistic on the U.S. economic outlook for some time, investors are now embracing upside data surprises, analysts say. The perceived odds of the Fed keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25 percent at its meeting next week is now about 26 percent, futures trading shows. Just over a week ago, futures were evenly split between a 25 and a 50 basis point cut. Meanwhile, traders are paring bets the next move by the European Central Bank would be a hike in benchmark interest rates.
Advanced Commodity Spread Germany's political concessions in the wake of a coalition government between the top political parties meant Merkel's party had to give control of finance and labor to the SPD which is viewed with uncertainty towards reforms there. Those uncertainties were reflected in the Euro's fall.
The nominal bilateral dollar to euro exchange is the exchange rate that attracts the most attention. Notwithstanding the comparative importance of euro to US dollar bilateral trade links, trade with the UK is, to some extent, more important for the Euro zone than is trade with the US. The dollar and the euro have a strong predisposition to run together in the very short run, but sometimes there can be significant discrepancies. The very strong appreciation of the dollar against the euro in 2003 is one example of these discrepancies.
Online Spread Betting Germany is the EU's largest financial budgetary contributor. Britain's Blair and France's Chirac had already agreed when they met last week to table EU budget talks until Germany resolved its political issues.
Stock Spread Trading Angela Merkel's party had announced Monday that she won Germany's Chancellor's seat, but the enthusiasm quickly faded when the compromised were disclosed on Tuesday.
Betting Horse Racing Spread The uncertainty of the European Union's economic future may outweigh the dollar's strength at least in the short term.
Complete Guide Spread Trading Japan had released strong export figures for machinery, but it was not enough to currency traders of the yen's value. Currency traders showed their disappointment in Japan's central bank for not raising interest rates there as the dollar rose 0.1 percent to 114.23 yen.
Sport Spread Betting Tuesday marked the beginning of a two-day meeting in Japan by the Bank of Japan, which is expected to end its lax monetary policy. But a change to Japan's monetary policy is not expected until next year.
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