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German State Elections Compared

Financial Spread Trading By Sam Vaknin
Author of "Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited"

Knowing how to spread bet is a valuable weapon to have in your gambling strategy. Spread betting expert Bernard Rossi shows you the ropes. Learn financial spread betting and spread betting exchange here at inside edge.

Nfl Betting Spread The May 22, 2005 elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (with 18
million inhabitants, Germany's most populous state) are expected to
determine the fate of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, his party, the
Social Democrats, SPD (which ruled the state in the last four
decades), and his coalition with the Greens. The SPD-Greens are
projected to lose to the uninspiring coalition of Christian
Democrats (CDU) and Free Democrats. The state is buffeted by the
crumbling of traditional industries such as mining and heavy industry

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Commodity Spread Trading The run up to this election is reminiscent of another - the pivotal
elections in Saxony-Anhalt in April 21, 2002. Germany is again in
bad shape: high unemployment (12% and rising), exploding public
debt, rising crime, collapsing healthcare and education systems.

Internet cafes were also shut down in the capital and other major cities such as Isfahan (central Iran) in an apparent effort to prevent the spread of election news by ordinary Iranians. A number of students taking part in the demonstration stated that authorities had warned them that if their identity cards did not carry an election stamp, they would not be allowed to take part in university entrance exams.

Betting Exchange Spread The vote in the east German Land of Saxony-Anhalt (3 million
inhabitants, 8000 sq. miles) was followed with bated breath by
assorted South Koreans. The merger of West and East Germany in the
wake of the implosion of communism in 1990 is considered to be a
test case. Can two political entities separated by ideology,
economic doctrine and performance, wealth, political structure,
mentality, and history - become one successfully?

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Advanced Commodity Spread The answer was a resounding no only 4 years before. An openly
xenophobic right wing party, financed by an eccentric Munich-based
publisher-millionaire, garnered 13 percent of the votes in the 1998
bellwether elections in Saxony-Anhalt. These usually precede
nationwide parliamentary elections to the Bundestag by 5 months.

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Online Spread Betting Saxony-Anhalt used to be second in industrial production only to the
Ruhr. Its chemical factories (120,000 workers) and engineering firms
(80,000 employees) were among the most advanced in the world. It
still notes with pride that the first color film ever was shot and
developed in Wolfen. East Germany, the ostensible industrial
powerhouse of the Soviet Bloc, placed Saxony-Anhalt on a pedestal.

Stock Spread Trading Yet, by 1998, one of every four working adults was unemployed.
Another 100,000 participated in make-believe and stopgap retraining
schemes and public works. A decisive majority of Saxony-Anhalt's
young never experienced a day's work. Its bloated, inefficient, and
technologically retarded industries crumbled as they faced the
powerhouses of West Germany.

Betting Horse Racing Spread Klaus Schucht, Saxony-Anhalt's then minister of economics since
1994 - a former Treuhand privatization expert and Chairman of
Ruhrkohle AG (coal industry) - supervised the agonized
disintegration of its smokestacks. Salaries in the public sector
(e.g., teachers) were cut by up to 20 percent in return for job
security. Welfare rolls swelled, 15,000 people became homeless by
1996, unemployment reached monstrous proportions (28 percent) in
company towns like Bittersfeld. Yet dwindling tax receipts forced
the government to implement four consecutive austerity plans, each
harsher than its predecessor.

Complete Guide Spread Trading Inevitably, the voters trounced the nationally-ruling CDU. With 22
percent of the votes, they came almost equal with the PDS - the
former (and reformed) vicious communists. The minority SPD-Greens
government of Saxony-Anhalt (with tacit PDS support) was unaffected,
though people rated its performance 0.2 on a scale of -5 to +5. Only
the racist DVU benefited, as it linked mass unemployment to the
ubiquity of foreigners, the self-enrichment of an old-new elite of
turncoats, and an all-pervasive social crisis. The "Magdeburg Model"
of compassionate reform the eastern way - failed.

Sport Spread Betting The "World Socialist Web Site" quoted the DVU's campaign slogans
with terrified fascination:

Low Spread Forex Trading "German money for German jobs", "Jobs for Germans first", "This
time - make your vote a protest", "Corrupt politicians, greedy
parliamentarians, European Union bigwigs, asylum fraudsters", "If
the bosses won't invest, then the state must fund new jobs." The DVU
denounced Kohl for being "the main culprit" for the "collapse of our
economy."

Trading Spread And Seasonals Not everything was bleak, though. In an article published in
November 1999 ("Coming Together, Ten Years on"), "The Economist"
described a prospering Hanseatic town in Saxony-Anhalt. It
attributed the relative prosperity of the Ossies to Wessies
returning to reclaim their property, or to invest, "tempted by cheap
labour, a chance to ignore red tape, and fat government incentives
to invest in the former east".

Betting Guide Insider Sports Wessies and Ossies still clash in mutual suspicion and envy, the
mental barriers are still there, alienation and estrangement as well
as crime are rampant, pensions and salaries are lower, unemployment
is (much) higher, and the "blossoming landscape" promised by the CDU
has shriveled - but the railway to Berlin was being re-opened and
the town is full of shopping malls and glittering banks,
observed "The Economist".

Arbitrage Spread Trading Yet, this is true only in the "interface" zone between east and
west. Further inland, the picture is grim indeed. And, in Saxony-
Anhalt, it is the grimmest. At the time of the elections,
unemployment was still a devastating 21 percent (January 2002
figures), double the national average and more than in any other
eastern Land. Its GDP grew by 0.6 percent in 2000, underperforming
national growth (though both the manufacturing and services sectors
outperformed the German average). The construction industry
contracted by 10 percent in the 12 months to April 2001.

Betting Spread Successful Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has spent a good part of January 2002
cajoling Bombardier, the Canadian rail equipment maker, not to end
production at its Halle factory (900 workers). The German government
agreed, in return, to buy from Bombardier several undeveloped land
tracts. It is rumored that Bombardier was also promised lucrative
state contracts immediately after the September elections.

College Football Betting The almighty trade union IG Metal has pressured BMW into investing 1
billion euros in a new car plant in Leipzig (with supplies coming
from Saxony-Anhalt). BMW complied but made it clear that it expects
the state of Saxony-Anhalt to underwrite a third of its investment.

Betting Point Spread On Nfl Of 11 billion euros slated for capital expenditures in Saxony-
Anhalt's decrepit infrastructure - more than 7 billion are transfers
from the federal government and the European Union. Saxony-Anhalt,
at 25 percent, has double the rate of investment in the Lander of
West Germany (though its investment rate declined to 20% by 2004).
Only 60 percent of its 8 billion euros strong budget relies on tax
revenues - the rest comes from transfers. Transfers - mainly social
benefits - constitute almost half the state's operating expenditures.

Betting Point Spread Even so, Saxony-Anhalt ran a debilitating budget deficit (9
percent), mostly financed with 3 billion euros of fresh borrowing
per year. It renowned for its lavish road shows, trying to market
its bonds to international investors. It expects to have zero net
borrowing in 2006 - but the mountain of total outstanding debt (76%
of which is negotiable) will weigh on this impoverished state for a
long time to come. Moreover, it has a reputation in financial
markets as being dangerously exposed to credit derivatives in a
desperate attempt to reduce its effective interest rate to 5%.

Super Bowl Betting Spread The federal government has rejected calls by the Lander to guarantee
their bonds by intermingling state and federal obligations in
auctioned "packages". A conceptually similar mixed package of 1.75
billion euros in three year notes issued by seven states ("Lander
jumbo") - the 12th of its kind - was sold in January 2002 at a mere
0.22% above the federal benchmark. The Lander owe 350 billion euros
between them. Even a marginal improvement in interest rate
translates to hundreds of millions of euros in annual savings.
Saxony-Anhalt (rated the lowest among the Lander, at AA-) spearheads
this campaign.

Betting Fan Football Guide In an interview to Bloomberg, its finance minister, Heinrich Aller,
said:

Spread Betting Uk " 'Different credit ratings for the states and the federal
government make no sense' ... He said there is no risk to the
government in guaranteeing the states as they are 'too big' and 'too
public' to default on payments. Eichel (the German minister of
finance) is concerned that centralized bond sales could cause the
government's borrowing costs to rise ... The government is reluctant
to act as guarantor for states on interest and debt repayments (said
Deputy Finance Minister of Germany Karl Diller)."

Betting Betting Fan Football But many are betting that, in an effort to impose fiscal discipline
on the oft-errant Lander, the federal government may yet agree to
joint issuance of bonds subject to clear limitations on regional
budget deficits (a "national stability pact"). Should this happen,
Germany's rating is likely be downgraded but Saxony-Anhalt would
stand to benefit, its borrowing and debt service costs cut
considerably by its enhanced credit rating.

Betting Company Germany In This could be one of the goodies the SPD has in store for the
eastern states, under the umbrella of its "Towards the Future"
economic program. Schroeder unrealistically promises to equalize
wage levels between east and west by 2007. Investors in the eastern
parts will be entitled to even more generous incentives. Job
creation schemes (worth 10 billion euros annually) will abound.

Ig Index Spread Betting On a Sunday in mid-March 2002, the SPD held a special (and
unprecedented) conclave of SPD associations in the eastern states in
Magdeburg. It is a measure of desperation. Despite some recent anti-
eastern steps by the CDU and CSU (e.g., contesting cross-subsidies
in Germany's health insurance funds which benefit the Ossies) -
discontent with the SPD and its lackluster performance was rife. The
CDU succeeded to shift the emphasis from unilateral transfers to the
east (a whopping trillion euros since 1990) to the formation of new
businesses, the promotion of R&D in universities, and the
enhancement of business-critical infrastructure.

Betting Guide Practical The SPD never really swept Saxony-Anhalt off its feet. Hoppner, the
prime minister at the time, headed a minority government, the
outcome of narrowly averted defeats in both 1994 and 1998. He did
his populist best to reflect east German disenchantment and longing
for a spurious past of tight-knit communities and low crime rates.
But in doing so he played into the hands of the PDS whose rise is
now inevitable. It has been the SPD's silent partner all along and
thus legitimized and rehabilitated. Its comeback is part of a trend
all over Central and Eastern Europe. But apart from the PDS, it
would be wrong to read too much into the state elections in April as
far as the future alignment of national politics is concerned.

Betting Blogspot Com Site Perhaps more importantly, the elections in Saxony-Anhalt were a
referendum about the unification of Germany. Has it really been a
failure, good intentions and a trillion euros notwithstanding? Is
future Germany an entity permanently fractured along the old fault
lines of rich vs. poor and east vs. west? Does the solution consist
of throwing more money at the problem or is a fundamental re-think
called for? Above all, will it ever get better? The unemployed,
welfare-dependent, and humiliated denizens of Saxony-Anhalt don't
believe so. They feel second class and East Germany is retroactively
idealized in a perverted form of nostalgia. Germany - and the world
with it - have been losing its faith as well. The experiment may
have failed after all. South Korea is again watching closely.

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AUTHOR BIO (must be included with the article)

Football Betting Spread Sam Vaknin ( http://samvak.tripod.com ) is the author of Malignant
Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West
Lost the East. He served as a columnist for Central Europe Review,
PopMatters, Bellaonline, and eBookWeb, a United Press International
(UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and the editor of mental health
and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory and
Suite101.

Financial Spread Trading Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government
of Macedonia.

Nfl Betting Spread Visit Sam's Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com

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Betting Exchange Spread

Sam Vaknin ( http://samvak.tripod.com ) is the author of Malignant
Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West
Lost the East. He served as a columnist for Central Europe Review,
PopMatters, Bellaonline, and eBookWeb, a United Press International
(UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and the editor of mental health
and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory and
Suite101.

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Contact him at http://samvak.tripod.com

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